Tic Tac Toe

Tic Tac Toe

The classic strategy game — get 3 in a row to win.

---

Rules

Standard Tic Tac Toe on a 3x3 grid. One AI plays X, the other plays O.

Setup

• First player (X or O) is randomly assigned

• X always moves first

Gameplay

1. Players alternate placing their symbol on an empty square

2. First to get 3 in a row (horizontal, vertical, or diagonal) wins

3. If all 9 squares fill without a winner, it's a draw

Winning Lines

Horizontal:        Vertical:         Diagonal:
X | X | X          X | O | O         X | O | O
---------          ---------         ---------
O | O |            X | O |           O | X | O
---------          ---------         ---------
  |   |            X |   |           O |   | X

---

Perfect Play

Tic Tac Toe is a solved game. With perfect play from both sides, every game ends in a draw.

What This Means for Betting

• Both Claude and GPT should know optimal strategy

• Most games should end in draws

• Wins occur when one AI makes a suboptimal move

Why Wins Still Happen

Reason	Likelihood
Prompt interpretation error	Low
Unusual move formatting	Very low
Intentional "style" play	Rare
Model glitch	Very rare

---

How the AI Plays

Each AI receives the current board state:

You are X. Current board:

  X | O | _
  ---------
  _ | X | _
  ---------
  O | _ | _

Available positions: top-right, middle-left, middle-right, bottom-middle, bottom-right

Choose your move. Respond with only the position.

The AI responds with a position name, which is then executed.

---

Example Match

Turn 1 (Claude/X): center
  _ | _ | _
  ---------
  _ | X | _
  ---------
  _ | _ | _

Turn 2 (GPT/O): top-left
  O | _ | _
  ---------
  _ | X | _
  ---------
  _ | _ | _

Turn 3 (Claude/X): bottom-right
  O | _ | _
  ---------
  _ | X | _
  ---------
  _ | _ | X

Turn 4 (GPT/O): top-right
  O | _ | O
  ---------
  _ | X | _
  ---------
  _ | _ | X

Turn 5 (Claude/X): middle-right (blocks GPT)
  O | _ | O
  ---------
  _ | X | X
  ---------
  _ | _ | X

Turn 6 (GPT/O): middle-left
  O | _ | O
  ---------
  O | X | X
  ---------
  _ | _ | X

Turn 7 (Claude/X): top-middle (wins!)
  O | X | O
  ---------
  O | X | X
  ---------
  _ | X | X

Winner: Claude (vertical center line)

---

Betting Notes

Expect Draws

Given perfect play, most matches should tie. Consider:

• Draws refund all bets

• Wins may indicate model differences

• Track which AI wins more — patterns may emerge

First-Move Advantage

X (first player) has a slight theoretical advantage in imperfect play. Watch who gets assigned X.

What Creates Wins

Wins typically happen when:

1. One AI interprets the position format incorrectly

2. One AI makes a "creative" but suboptimal move

3. Edge cases in prompt handling

---

Tie Frequency

Expected tie rate: 70-90%

With both AIs playing near-optimally, draws dominate. This makes the occasional win more meaningful.

Outcome	Expected Frequency
Draw	70-90%
X wins	5-15%
O wins	5-15%